Goal Rush Weekend

Goal Rush Weekend

Hello all and welcome to the next instalment of the Goal Rush as we look to bounce back from that 2-2 weekend last time out.  After hitting the first two bets and extending our run to 10-0 we certainly came crashing down with a huge bump! Not only did we see the third game lose but the fourth game saw our very first 0-0 in the seventy second game of this inaugural Goal Rush season.

A 2-2 over 2.5 goal performance and a 0-4 Yes on BTTS record made me a very miserable man this past Saturday night. Our record for the season extends to the below:

 

Over 0.5 goals 71-1      98.61% strike rate

Over 1.5 goals 63-9      87.5% strike rate

Over 2.5 goals 46-26    63.88% strike rate

Over 3.5 goals 26-46    36.11% strike rate

Yes on BTTS 42-30     58.33% strike rate

Home wins 36 Draws 11 Away wins 25

 

Seventy two games is quite a decent sample size but it is still not a big enough data pool to trust our selections with big stakes. I would like to see at least 150 bets or so before I raise the levels of my own investment. Anyway, on to this weekend and we have three games on Saturday and one game on Sunday.

 

Eskisehirspor v Gaziantepspor @ 11/10 Turkish Super Liga, 2pm UK Kick Off Time

After our late show last Friday night in Turkey we head back to the Super Liga hoping for an easier and quicker cash than last week where we waited until the dying seconds before collecting. Bottom placed Eskisehirspor entertain eleventh placed Gaziantepspor into the Ataturk Stadyumu located in Eskisehir. The visitors have conceded at least twice in each of their last five away games whilst the home team have conceded at least twice in each of their last six games, seventeen in total. In fact Eskisehirspor are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have allowed two or more goals in all but two of their fourteen league matches.  The last three meetings of the sides have all seen Yes on BTTS and the past two games between them have gone over 3.5 goals let alone over 2.5 goals. I really like the overs here at a generous looking price of odds against.

 

Colchester v Barnsley @ 4/6 English Division One, 3pm UK Kick Off Time

I bet you thought we would head to Peterborough this Saturday for a Division One Goal Rush but I think I have found a better bet this weekend than the reliable Posh. When the sides met last season both games went over 3.5 goals as on each occasion the home side won, 3-2 in Barnsley and 3-1 in Colchester. The sides have played a combined forty games so far this campaign and there have been no fewer than one hundred and thirty eight goals in those matches, an average of 3.45 goals per game. Both of these teams sit very low in the Division and these high goal scoring trends do not appear to change when they play teams of a similar stature as their combined twelve games in this spot against bottom third opposition have seen a total of thirty nine goals. Give me a high scoring game here and take a bit of the overs at the best price you can get.

 

Inverness v Kilmarnock @ Evens Scottish Premiership, 3pm UK Kick Off Time

We are heading to the Highlands of Scotland for the final game of our Saturday selections. Historically this game has been packed with goal scoring action and it is rare that both teams do not find the back of the net. The teams know each other well as due to the structure of Scottish Football they are forced to play each other endless amounts of times each season. Yes on BTTS has gone 27-5 since April 2005 when the sides meet in league action. Inverness have not kept a clean sheet in league action in any of their last nine games whilst Kilmarnock have kept just two clean sheets all season. Interestingly one of those was away to Celtic last time out but as we all know the way teams set up for a trip to Parkhead is far different to that of a usual Premiership away day. At the current market price of Evens this looks a very attractive bet to me so take advantage.

 

Sheffield United v Coventry @ 4/5 English Division One, Sunday 12pm UK Kick Off Time

I am hoping that you don’t cough up your Roast Beef this Sunday cheering on some goals at Bramall Lane. The home faithful have already seen plenty of those so far this season with thirty eight goals flying in during the Blades’ home fixtures. Coventry away games have not always seen a lot of goals as their ten road trips have seen a total of twenty three goals so below a 2.5 goal average per game.  However, when they play sides placed in the top half of the table there have been a total of twenty nine total goals in just nine games, an average of over three goals per game. Phew!  United’s last eight home games have seen an over 2.5 goal bet cash and their first two home matches of the season saw 2-0 home wins so none of the ten at Bramall Lane have seen less than two goals. Despite being top of the league Coventry have conceded plenty of goals lately as the opposition have scored in six of their last seven games and Coventry have conceded nine goals during those seven matches. Having said that Coventry scored sixteen goals in those seven games and I see no reason for this game not to be a high scoring affair. With this game being shown live on Sky Sports there may even be a good chance of gaining a price of above Even money should the first few minutes of the game see no real goalmouth action.

 

As I always say 1.7 or 7/10 is our guide price that we should be looking to obtain as a minimum. A few times of late the market has moved against me in terms of the price shortening either between me writing the column and/or after the posting of the column. If we assume that our 46-26 over 2.5 goals record has been achieved with every bet struck at 1.7 then we have made 6.2 points of profit which equates to a 8.61% ROI on equal stakes (before any potential exchange commission). This would be a very suitable long term return if we can continue to keep this rate of success moving forward. That is the target.

I have rambled on for long enough so all that is required from me now is to wish you the very best of British luck and I shall be back Sunday morning with my NFL thoughts.

 

All the best

Jimmy